Why the next decade will foil financial plans
1SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr I received a “financial plan” from an individual wanting me to review it with respect to his personal retirement goals. The plan was generated by one of the many “off the shelf” software packages that takes all the inputs of income, assets, pensions, social security, etc., and then spits out assumptions of future asset values and drawdowns in retirement.The problem is that the return assumptions were grossly flawed.In all of these plans, it is assumed individuals will have a rate of return of somewhere between 5-10% annually heading into retirement, and then 4-8% thereafter. The first major flaw in the plan is the “compounding” of annual returns over time which never happens.The second, and most important, is the future expectation of returns for individuals over the next 10-20 years.This second point is what I want to address today. continue reading »